tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3634628224045926034.post1337551400457431854..comments2023-08-29T01:27:13.772-07:00Comments on Magpie's Asymmetric Warfare: Why people kept jobs in this recession: Uh oh! Here we go again...Magpiehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07528637318288802178noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3634628224045926034.post-72665624226550642132010-05-16T19:20:48.873-07:002010-05-16T19:20:48.873-07:00You wrote: "It’s interesting how the period 7...You wrote: "It’s interesting how the period 70s-80s keep appearing everywhere I look at." at Stubborn Mule. I kept saying the same thing, and then I started to read about postmodernism. This is what happened in the 70's and 80's - and it affected everything.Bogarthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00044863676297755587noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3634628224045926034.post-16396057671825832922010-03-27T16:22:23.892-07:002010-03-27T16:22:23.892-07:00John,
Thanks for your comments.
Regarding your ...John,<br /><br />Thanks for your comments. <br /><br />Regarding your question: I'm no expert, John. So, you better take my opinion as just that: opinion.<br /><br />There is the fact that Australia seems to be shifting from the Western sphere of influence, towards the China/India one. It seems the advocates of the decoupling Australia/US theory were right.<br /><br />This has allowed a continuous growth in the primary sector (mining). During the post Dot.com recession, this shift was already manifesting itself.<br /><br />And there is also the Federal Government/RBA intervention to prop up aggregate demand. If you like, they successfully repeated the Keynesian "emergency room" prescription to keep the capitalism patient alive.<br /><br />How long this patching up will last is anyone's guess, but I believe it will be temporary. <br /><br />For one, we have already discussed the new moves by local capital to extract greater profits (through taxation and now industrial relations reform). This will have effects on aggregate demand and this form of capitalism is particularly dependent on aggregate demand.<br /><br />We are also sitting on top of a housing bubble, which is very dependent on the capacity of mortgagors to service their debt. The RBA policy of deflating the bubble seems quite risky, to say the least.<br /><br />This bubble could explode at any moment: next month or within 10 years.<br /><br />But even within the mainstream commentariat there is concern that the triggers of this last crisis were not addressed:<br /><br />Nightmare scenario: too big to fail, too quick to forget, by Ian Verrender. SMH. March 27, 2010<br />http://www.smh.com.au/business/nightmare-scenario-too-big-to-fail-too-quick-to-forget-20100326-r34u.html<br /><br />And there is the thing that the rest of the world is not yet out of the woods (even if we in Oz were near).<br /><br />At the risk of being tiresome and repetitive: I think we are in for some hard times.<br /><br />These are my two cents worth, anyway.<br /><br />PS: Good luck in the conference.Magpiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07528637318288802178noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3634628224045926034.post-38801034659635917702010-03-27T14:03:26.187-07:002010-03-27T14:03:26.187-07:00Thanks Aussie Magpie. This quote was quite enlight...Thanks Aussie Magpie. This quote was quite enlightening.<br /><br />"Labour market deregulation is amplifying existing trends to growth in precarious employment, wage dispersion and the development of a low-pay sector amongst full-time employees."<br /><br />So what do you think explains why Australia didn't go into recession when countries with more flexibility like the US and parts of Europe did?En Passant with John Passanthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07995648116853299140noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3634628224045926034.post-15624078882857724682010-03-26T22:27:46.670-07:002010-03-26T22:27:46.670-07:00I see what you mean. The (unstated) idea is that B...I see what you mean. The (unstated) idea is that B was unemployed. So what the whole thing achieves is to change the identities of those employed and unemployed (plus shorter times/less dough)<br /><br />Thanks for that. I'll fix that up.<br /><br />But I am not so forgiving with the RBA. First, this is not something new, that has never been commented before (although I would gladly take the credit!): they have been warned (there is all that literature on the effects of workplace flexibility on employment I mention here).<br /><br />Second, during the 1980s the Federal Government reduced the length of the work week (to 38 hours). This somewhat cushioned the loss of jobs. In the RBA paper and in Ross Gittins' article this is mentioned. So, couldn't the RBA propose it to the Federal Government?<br /><br />In any case, there is a conference on these matters scheduled for next week (if I'm not mistaken). I don't think all the singing and dancing those academics and researchers will do will mean diddly squat to the RBA.<br /><br />But, trust me on this, no one would be happier to be proved wrong.Magpiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07528637318288802178noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3634628224045926034.post-16471659673686796862010-03-26T22:07:20.202-07:002010-03-26T22:07:20.202-07:00If Ms A. is out of a job and Ms. B has changed job...If Ms A. is out of a job and Ms. B has changed jobs, reducing hours, wouldn't hours worked and number of people employed both be down?<br /><br />To give the RBA the benefit of the doubt, I would have thought that they would have thought reduced hours is not a case of "everybody happy", more the lesser of two evils compared to losing a job completely.<br /><br />Of course, that doesn't take away from the key issue you identify: there seems to be an ongoing structural shift to casual/part-time work as opposed to ebbs and flows along with the economic cycle.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com