Uninterested Advice.

Well, after a long hiatus, let's bring a long story!

As the Australian and global economies are already out of the woods, as we all know, it's time to resume growth.

This is the Business Council of Australia (BCA, "CEOs of 100 of Australia's top companies" [1]) uninterested advice:

"The federal government has committed itself to fiscal discipline and a high-productivity future. The Budget must include a plan to reduce the level of government involvement in the economy. It must shift the focus of revenue and spending to support business growth, job creation and workforce participation." My emphasis [2].

The reader might remember the Rudd government has vaguely stated its intention to keep federal budget bound to 2% real increases. Well, this is the commitment alluded, and the BCA is asking for a change in the way government money is raised and spent, to flesh out the Rudd government commitment.

What kind of changes is the BCA talking about?

"The BCA endorses the government's strategy to return the budget to surplus via expenditure constraint and savings rather than higher taxes". My emphasis [2].

Now, the Federal government is yet to reveal the detailed contents of the Henry Tax Review report, which not surprisingly, deals with taxes. Extra-officially a proposal to reduce income tax has leaked to the media. The shortfall in revenue, according to what has transpired, would be covered by a tax on natural resources rent (a.k.a. a tax on mining). With the statement above, I'm sure the BCA doesn't mean they want this "tax on mining" to be scrapped.

However, the BCA has made clear what taxes should be reduced, and what should increase:

"The essence of the BCA's position is that tax reforms arising from the Henry review should reduce the reliance on corporate income tax (and capital income taxes more broadly), increase the reliance on the least distortive taxes (notably consumption and property taxes) and not increase taxes on labour income". My emphasis [3].

Among those "least distortive taxes" is the GST.

So, if the Budget is (A) to be on surplus [4], but (B) new or increased corporate taxes are not desired, this suggests that government spending must also be cut, not simply "constrained" as stated above (unless the idea were to plug the deficit just with an increased GST).

If you've followed this far, you might be asking: "Okay, then, to cut government spending where?"

Well, the BCA suggests several places:

1. "Progressively increase the qualifying age for the age pension to 67 years was a step in the right direction - more difficult decisions of a structural nature like this will be required". Although the BCA does not specify a more appropriate retirement age, it does state that "as a purely illustrative exercise, it is estimated that the traditional retirement age of 65 years would need to increase to 73 years by 2049 in order to ensure that the age dependency ratio at that time is equal to its current proportion of 5 people of working age for every 1 retired". My emphasis [5].
2. "To meet its expenditure commitments, the government should consider ways to tighten eligibility and apply means testing to some of its larger payment items (…)".
3. "(…) And subject unspent stimulus funding to a re-assessment against other fiscal priorities and Australia's future needs".
4. "In this context, funding in a mixed public and private system represents a key lever for shaping and directing the health system". My emphasis in all items [6].

The first item requires no further comment, as it is self-explanatory,

In regards to the second item, as human memory is a risky thing, I will remind the reader that last year, as part of its stimulus package, the federal government relaxed the eligibility criteria for unemployment benefits (Newstart Allowance), without increasing the fortnightly amount paid.

This way, an unemployed homeowner couple with combined assets exceeding $11,000 and up to $252,500, is able to claim up to $411.50 each partner per fortnight. But in this case, as the asset amount exceeds $11,000, the payments may be delayed. And payments are reduced by at least $0.50 by each dollar income the couple might have in excess of $62 per fortnight (say, interests on savings) [7].

The third item is also quite self-explanatory, but I will make a little comment: the idea is to cancel works for which the federal government has already allocated funds, but whose execution has not started.

The fourth item is by far the vaguest. Regardless, I am sure it has nothing to do with the sudden Opposition intention to privatize Medibank Private, should they win the next federal elections. [8]

Although the document under analysis is a Budget Submission, and thus should deal on fiscal policy issues, the BCA goes further with items unrelated to federal budgets, such as "the need for ongoing structural reforms to our system of workplace relations and enhancements to our education and training base". [9]

As before, I will draw the reader's attention to the extraordinary coincidence between this statement and Mr. Abbott's intention to restore the system of individual work contracts.


Concluding remarks

The BCA Submission is interesting, for what it contains and for what it leaves out.

In spite of its recommendations against new taxes, it leaves out the ETS, called by Mr. Abbott the "new great tax on everything". Does this mean the BCA considers the ETS is definitely dead? Or they don't mind this specific "new great tax on everything"?

To increase the retirement age, as suggested, unless made effective immediately, will do nothing to reduce spending in the near future, which is the scope of a federal budget. But it comes at a price that no government would be happy to pay in an election year.

How much savings can tighter eligibility criteria for Newstart Allowance bring? Hard to say, but it shouldn't be much: if the employment situation is improving as much as ABS statistics say, unemployment benefits should be falling already, automatically.

The BCA doesn't specify what kind of workplace reform is required, unless one were to assume that Mr. Abbott's words reflect the institutional opinion of the BCA. Still, given that the Australian economy has performed as magnificently as we had been led to believe, there seems to be little point in reforms: it ain't broken, so don't fix it.

Interestingly, the BCA has not made any pronouncement about public sectors lay offs (an obvious way of saving), as the opposition, in the person of Mr. Joyce, has.

Similarly, other than it needs to be cut, little detail is given about the BCA position on health spending, so it's risky to comment on this. Does the opposition Medibank proposal fit in with the BCA Submission?

Given that new taxes or increased corporate, capital and personal income taxes are off limits, I suppose this leaves the Federal government with few options, other than to raise the GST rate.

As with cutting down Federal spending in social security in general, this would be risky in an election year. More importantly, however: it may be counterproductive.

Combined, an increase in GST and a reduction in the already meagre unemployment benefits (considering that workforce underutilisation runs at about 13-14%), could impact aggregate demand, at a moment when the RBA has indicated its intention to continue its policy of rising interest rates, while the global economic outlook remains uncertain.

But, then again, as we all know, we are already out of the woods and now we can forget about demand management and concentrate instead in supply management:

"The BCA endorses the importance of pressing ahead with microeconomic reforms needed to enhance the SUPPLY SIDE of the economy". [10]

REFERENCES:

[1] Our Members
http://www.bca.com.au/Content/100830.aspx

[2] News Releases. Recovery Road Map Requires Balance, Commitment and Leadership. 14 February 2010.
http://www.bca.com.au/Content/101652.aspx

[3] Balancing Act: Fiscal and Policy Priorities to Support Growth – BCA Budget Submission 2010–11. p. 3.
http://www.bca.com.au/DisplayFile.aspx?FileID=618

[4] To the chartalist readers: as I'm trying to merely report what is there in black and white, I'll abstain to go into the subject of whether governments issuing fiat money need to cover their spending or not.

[5] Balancing... p. 5.

[6] News Releases...

[7] A guide to Australian Government Payments. 1 January - 19 March 2010. p. 22.
http://www.centrelink.gov.au/internet/internet.nsf/filestores/co029_1001/$file/co029_1001en.pdf

[8] Opposition will sell off Medibank. SMH, 21/02/2010.
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/opposition-will-sell-off-medibank-20100221-on2m.html

[9] Balancing... p. 4

[10] Balancing... p. 4

Love is for all

This weekend, thanks to Christmas extra work and post Christmas sales, I finally bought the latest Rammstein double album (Liebe ist fuer alle da: Love is for all. Universal). You might call it my belated and unlikely Christmas present.

And my use of the word "unlikely" is deliberate. There are few things less Christmassy than a Rammstein album and this one is no exception.

In many ways, this appears to be a typical Rammstein production; in a few others, it seems to me, is rather particular and more extreme. Give me some time to go through the lyrics, though, as my German is limited, and Rammstein lyrics are notoriously complex, containing unexpected literary references, and idiomatic word games.

But today I want to talk about what for me, so far, is the most immediately striking feature of the album: its cover art, by the Spanish photographer Eugenio Recuenco.

Recuenco's work has been described as pictorial. It certainly deserves that description. In Liebe ist fuer alle da, Recuenco's photography evocates early XVII century Dutch/Flemish painting: dark backgrounds; detailed physical and physiognomic details, as if illuminated by a light unable to pierce the surrounding darkness; a mainly black, ocher, and yellow color palette.

Young Woman in Imaginary Costume, by Salomon de Bray.
Johanes Lutma, portrait, and
Venus and Adonis, by Jacob Adriaensz Backer.

Observe the earnest expressions in these portraits: this is the aspect where Recuenco's work diverges from the Dutch painters.

Recuenco's cannot hide Spanish Romantic influences, specifically Goya: his still life paintings and especially, in his later years, the Black Paintings.

Sometimes I have been tempted to describe musical projects like Rammstein, Nine Inch Nails and Marilyn Manson as a contemporary Dada of horror. I feel this description may not be enough.

After this preamble, I confess Recuenco's work -however obviously artistic, valuable and carefully executed- is not for everyone as it is indeed disturbing and macabre, even by Rammstein's standards.

You have been warned: cover art for Liebe ist fuer alle da (5th and 6th rows of thumbnails) by Eugenio Recuenco.

La Vie en Rose: the Irvine Index

Today, having a look at the National Times (The Sydney Morning Herald online opinion section) I found an article by Jessica Irvine titled "The Irvine Index".

These are some lines in Irvine's article:

"THE American Nobel laureate economist Paul Krugman has called it the 'Big Zero' but Australians have plenty of reasons to celebrate the first decade of the 21st century. (...)"

"However, Australia sailed into its 19th year of uninterrupted growth. So are we better off than we were a decade ago? From a financial point of view, the answer undoubtedly is yes.

"In the noughties the Australian economy burst through the trillion-dollar mark. Average earnings rose from less than $40,000 to more than $62,000, a 58 per cent jump. (...)"

"Australians grew richer in the noughties. Whether we grew happier is harder to quantify."

I, for one, disagree with Irvine's assessment, although she admittedly allows that her comments refer to the financial aspect of growth alone and that there may be disagreement on how "happy" we may be.

These are my comments to Irvine's article (which I'll try to post in the corresponding blog, provided the editors make it open to the public):

Interesting article. However, it could have been much better documented. A simpler way to do this is to consider median (as opposed to average) values, adjusted for inflation.

As I am sure Irvine knows, averages are largely meaningless when it comes to describe total income, wealth and prices. For those interested, have a look at Statistics Every Writer Should Know. Or to my own article "Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics" in this blog.

One of the reasons Krugman is not impressed with the American "Big Zero" is that he's conducted studies on income and wealth distribution in the US. By 1992, for instance, "The Rich, the Right, and the Facts" starts with: "The income gains of the 1980s did go overwhelmingly to the rich."

These studies, limited to the US, have been recently confirmed by Emmanuel Saez (from University of California, Berkeley): the top 1% of Americans reaped 2/3 of income gains in the latest expansion.

What is more, Saez extended his analyses to Australia, suggesting Australia during the late 90s-mid 00s was similar to the US in the 80s and 90s: that is, periods of economic "rationalism" with increasing inequality.

I don't believe similar studies have been conducted in Australia, by Australian academic researchers, although I would suggest "Grappling with Inequality", by John Wicks (St. Vincent de Paul Society, 2005).

The Golden Age of Grotesque

You may not believe it, but I've just realized we're approaching the end of the year and decade.

No, I don't live in a cave in the middle of the bush. Intellectually, I had already grasped the idea; it just did not "strike an emotional cord", if you like.

This epiphany came to me while reading Rortybomb's end-of-the-year posts.

Rortybomb is a blog I recommend, but not without a warning: it's a Yank blog. And Rortybomb's tastes in music are, well, Yank musical tastes. No offence meant.

Anyway, Rortybomb was exploring the question: did the 00s suck? He pointed to a Russian techno-dance duo as an example of dubious music; no problem here.

Not so sure with his choices, though.

Let's face it, I'm no expert, but for me, music, art in fact, is an image of its time. As I see it, it doesn't need to be "pretty" or pleasant.

Say, Baroque music still had religious overtones, inherited from the Renaissance, but it valued musical complexity and performer's technical ability.

Classical music, on the other hand, reflects the spirit of the mid and late Enlightenment. Its greatest values were melody, harmony, order. Think of Beethoven or Mozart.

Romanticism, on the other hand, was the embodiment of feeling, tragedy, and in the specific German case, heroism. And those are the values of Wagner.


The Golden Age of Grotesque

But ours is neither a time of harmony, nor of heroism; quite to the contrary. Instead, I believe our music should be monstrous, and dissonant.

In this spirit, I find that Marilyn Manson has done good things. You've gotta give credit to a band that says:

"This isn't music and we're not a band
We're five middle fingers on a motherfucking hand" (Vodevil, John 5 and Skold)

But my kudos don't go to Marilyn Manson...

Without further ado, the winners of the Golden Age of Grotesque nomination are: Rammstein and Nine Inch Nails.

Rammstein for diverse tracks, which reflect the mood of the 00s, often with a dose of black humour: Amerika, Mein Teil, Moskau, Benzin and Zerstoeren, in particular.

Mein Teil, for those not familiar, is inspired by the "German cannibal" case (Armin Meiwes and Bernd Brandes) and it gives a whole new meaning to "my bit" (as the chorus and title translate).

Amerika, on the other hand, isn't nearly as dark, as can be seen:

"We're all living in Amerika
Amerika ist wunderbar" (Amerika, collectively attributed to the band)

Nine Inch Nails for their consistently aggressive and haunting music, which for me reaches its apex in Year Zero:

"I should have listened to her, so hard to keep control
We kept on eating but our bloated belly's still not full
She gave us all she had but we went and took some more
Can't seem to shut her legs, our mother nature is a whore." (Survivalism, Trent Reznor)

Now, my WTF nomination goes to a young fellow, who composes nice, catchy songs, but whose lyrics I find peculiar: Ben Lee, for I Love Pop Music:

"I love pop music, this is how we do it
It's politics you can romance to
I love pop music, sprinkle sugar through it;
Philosophy that you can dance to".

On second thoughts, the idea of the cave in the middle of the bush doesn't sound that absurd.