Her and Her Shadow.

A quick note today.

Kate McClymont, SMH's senior reporter covering "the [NSW] state's largest ever corruption inquiry", wrote yesterday:

"A barrister appearing for an allegedly corrupt player in the current ICAC inquiry asked me this week if I had seen House of Cards, an English political thriller in which conservative politician Francis Urquhart deploys blackmail and other nefarious methods to achieve his political ambitions.
"There were two things I recalled about the program, and one of them was that the journalist met with a sticky end, still clutching her tape recorder as she fell to her death.
"It was therefore with some disquiet that I learnt one of the central figures who has appeared at the recent Independent Commission Against Corruption inquiry approached a private detective to have me followed." (See here)

The inquiry, involving the Obeid family and Ian Macdonald, former NSW Labor powerbrokers, today resulted in:

"A proposed open cut coal mine central to the state's largest ever corruption inquiry is set to be blocked by the NSW government after the Premier, Barry O'Farrell, announced that evidence heard during public hearings would be considered in deciding whether it should go ahead.
"Cascade Coal lodged a development application for the mine, at Mount Penny in the state's north west, in December 2010.
"The exploration licence for the Mount Penny area, approved by the former Labor minister Ian Macdonald, has become the subject of sensational allegations at the Independent Commission Against Corruption." (See here)

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McClymont shows that there still may be some courage and decency around.

Talking Heads.

[A]

"O'Farrell Decides, but Packer's Man Has Last Word", says Sean Nicholls, from Fairfax Media, in exclusive note published today.

I don't think Nicholls' note needs much comment:

"A senior executive at James Packer's Crown Limited was allowed to rewrite a media release before it was issued by the Premier, Barry O'Farrell, announcing initial government backing of the company's plans for a $1 billion hotel and casino at Barangaroo."

Spokesmen for NSW premier O'Farrell and Crown did not deny the fact, but declined to say whether O'Farrell had personally approved the rewritten version of the release. There was "nothing unusual" about this, which is a "common practice", they said.

The revelation comes after Fairfax published last November "that strict guidelines for when the government could bypass a competitive-tender process for major projects were watered down shortly before Mr Packer put forward his plan."

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What is it people say about governments being independent arbiters? Something related to the Road to Serfdom, maybe?

Image Credit:
[A] I don't know who created the file, but whoever it was, my usage does not imply they endorse me or my usage of the work. File licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported. Wikipedia.

You Be The Judge

Last night (Wednesday, 1th of June) the ABC's 7.30 Report contained a segment on the possibility of a NSW Government/state employees unions conflict.

This post will consist on pieces of the transcript (see here). They are shown in italics, and indentation, so they are easily distinguishable from my comments (not in italics, and either not indented or within square brackets):

CHRIS UHLMANN, PRESENTER: The New South Wales Government is the nation's biggest employer and it's about to revolutionize the way it deals with its 400,000 workers. It's set to cut arbitration rights and fix pay increases. The justification is a blowout in the public sector wages bill, and the changes could become law as early as tonight.

But independent research obtained exclusively by 7.30 questions the assumptions driving one of the country's biggest industrial relations experiments.

Here we'll focus on the calculations the O'Farrell government uses to justify its measures.

BARRY O'FARRELL: Well since 1997, the figures show that public sector wages in NSW have increased by 21.6 per cent. That's outstrips private sector wage increases of 11.1, it outstrips Queensland public sector wages at 14 per cent - 14.3 per cent, I think, and Victorian wages of just over 15 per cent.

CONOR DUFFY [reporter]: The new research obtained by 7.30 challenges the assumptions underpinning the Government's reforms. An independent analysis conducted by Sydney University's Workplace Research Centre concludes NSW public sector workers are paid roughly the same amount as their counterparts in other states and in the private sector.

The research mentioned can be found here. Note one refers to interstate comparisons for three categories of state public employees not at entry level (teachers, senior constables, and registered nurse). Note two refers to an statistical analysis of the difference between public and private sectors pays.

JOHN BUCHANNAN, WORKPLACE RELATIONS CENTRE, UNI. OF SYDNEY: These aren't fat cats who are rolling in clover; these are people [teachers, senior constables, and registered nurse] who are basically getting a little bit above average [wage for both private and public sectors at state level, regardless of experience]. So if you take those kinds of cuts in pay, they're gonna be below average and in some cases quite some way below average weekly earnings.

In some cases, NSW employees are above other states employees, in some cases, below.

CONOR DUFFY: The paper also modelled the effect the policy would've had on wages if it had been introduced 10 years ago. It found teachers would be 14,580 a year worse off, senior constables would be $8,961 a year worse off and nurses would be $12,232 a year worse off.

This is how the segment concludes:

BARRY O'FARRELL: I still make the point that on the 1997 to 2010 figures, public service wages in NSW have outstripped private sector wages and public sector wages in Victoria, in Queensland. That's across the board. I'm sure that, as with any other argument, someone can find an exception to prove the rule, but it doesn't make us back off.

Here it appears Premier O'Farrell is moving the signposts: it's not that NSW state employees' current salaries are higher than those in other states, but that they have increased faster.

CONOR DUFFY [reporter]: Such is the strength of the O'Farrell Government and the loathing for the Labor Opposition, it can politically afford a brawl with the unions, but there are warnings it may come at a cost, particularly in the state's classrooms, hospitals and police stations.

O'BRAY SMITH [registered nurse]: I certainly couldn't live in Sydney. I would have to move elsewhere. I don't think there's many nurses that could afford to live in Sydney with that kind of pay cut.

BARRY O'FARRELL: We want to ensure whether you're a nurse, a teacher, a police officer or some other public servant upon whom we all rely, that you get a fair rate of pay. We think this does guarantee a fair rate of pay.

For an ominous parallel with an episode (totally neglected by Australian media) but that could shed some light on this seemingly looming conflict, please see.

Wisconsin: Walker BRB overturned

From Journal Sentinel (Madison, 26-05-2011): "A Dane County judge Thursday struck down legislation repealing most collective bargaining for public employees, but the measure could still gain new life from the state Supreme Court or a fresh vote by lawmakers." (See here)

Since I last reported here, several events have taken place in Wisconsin: the (contested) re-election of Justice David Prosser to another 10-year term in the Wisconsin Supreme, Court after a strange counting error (see here); and the passing and signing of a voter ID bill requiring voters photo ID as a requisite for voting (see here) seem to be the most important ones (see here).

NSW News
In NSW this week, Premier O'Farrell has given steps towards what promises to be a conflict between unions (particularly state employee unions) and the State Government (see here).

Although all state unions are affected, police, nurses and teachers unions in NSW are affected twice: (1) because the State Government decided to strip the NSW unions of their powers to initiate prosecution of employers on breaches of safety legislation; and (2) the New South Wales Industrial Relations Commission will be stripped of its powers to decide on wage levels for State employees (see here).

However, in a surprising development, the legislation, steamed rolled by the Coalition in the Lower House of the NSW Parliament, was stopped at the Upper House, thanks to the votes of the Shooters and Fishers Party (see here).

I will do my best to keep readers posted on these subjects.

Post-Election NSW (II)

So, will they or won't they? (cut NSW public sector payroll, that is).

So far, as reported, signs about an eventual "slash-and-burn" campaign against the NSW public service seem mixed.

At one hand, there was talk of an unexpected budget "black hole" of $4.5 bn and a negative to rule out future budget cuts (which sounds ominous).

At the other hand, public sector unions seemed cautiously confident that the newly elected NSW government would keep a reasonable stance on this matter (which sounds somewhat reassuring).

However, considering that the Commonwealth has been warning of an impending tough federal budget, so much apparent moderation from the State Government is weird.

Last week Prof. Peter Shergold was appointed chairman of the board of the recently formed NSW Public Service Commission, to scrutinize "the role, size and direction of the NSW public service":

"One of his first tasks will be to oversee the review, which is expected to cover all aspects of the public service, including staff numbers, what they are paid and the way directors-general are appointed. It will take between three and six months."

Does it mean that a "slash-and-burn" campaign is about to be unleashed against the NSW public service?


Not necessarily, according to some observers:

"Forecasts that Shergold's appointment heralds a slash-and-burn campaign appear premature, however. Indeed, it is generally agreed that Shergold's five-year tenure as top public servant (he left after Kevin Rudd won the 2007 election) silenced many critics..."

However, the fact that Prof. Shergold has described his career "as a mandarin could be typified as that of an economic rationalist", who was the secretary of the Commonwealth Department of Workplace Relations during the waterfront disputes appears far from reassuring.

Update on election results:

The seemingly definitive results, after preferences, seem to indicate a better result for the Greens. They did indeed get their first seat at the lower house of the State Parliament, at the expenses of Labor; and the independent Pauline Hanson finally was left out of the upper house:

$4.5b Hole: O'Farrell Won't Rule Out Cuts

According to the local media (see here and here), after an independent audit, the new O'Farrell state government has found an unexpected $4.5 billion "black hole".

Not ruling out the possibility of unspecified budget cuts, Mr. O'Farrell did say:

"We do believe that by growing the state's economy that we can generate the revenue, not just to help fill this hole, but also to provide the quality services that people rely upon, to deliver that infrastructure that we're committed to."

Having followed the events in Wisconsin, I can't help a feeling of déjà vu in relation to the above.

However, it appears at least some local trade union members have been following the Wisconsin conflict (see here):

"Nurses, police, teachers and others public servants are hopeful the Coalition will deliver on promises of more resources, with unions warning the new government's overwhelming victory could be a one-off if they start to slash and burn.

"Public Service Association NSW general secretary John Cahill said public servants will hold new Premier Barry O'Farrell's government to account on his commitment that he believes in a bigger public service and won't cut jobs.

" 'He said that he wants to increase the number of public sector workers rather than decrease them, so he's saying all the right things, but we'll just have to make sure that he sticks to it,' Mr. Cahill said.

" 'But if there is a u-turn on some of these things that were said before the election, we'll certainly bring that to everyone's attention.' "

Update on election results:

Labor seem to have lost a seat in the Legislative Assembly to the Liberal/Nationals Coalition.

More importantly, the Greens seem to have lost a Legislative Council (upper house) seat to anti-immigration right wing independent Pauline Hanson. Together with the 4 seats of the smaller right-wing parties (Shooters and Fishers and Christian Democratic) and the 19 of the Liberal/Nationals Coalition, this gives the right wing of the Legislative Council 24 votes out of 42.

Post-Election NSW

The NSW State elections took place yesterday.

The results have been variously characterized, accurately one might add, as a "landslide election defeat", or more colorfully, as "bloodbath", and "carnage".

The Australian newspaper, in its election blog, with uncharacteristic moderation, said "O'Farrell crushes Labor". [*]

Whatever the adjectives one might chose to describe the results, and although definitive figures are yet to be announced, the provisional figures (as of Sunday 27-03-2011 16:50) by themselves are enough to qualify NSW Labor's defeat as historical:

Source: ABC. Legislative Council, and Legislative Assembly.

As can be seen, no deals are needed for the Coalition to pass legislation in the lower house of Parliament, unless the piece in question has additional, much more stringent, requirements. But if simple majority vote is required, the legislation project is as good as approved.

In the upper house, with 19 votes, the Liberal/National Coalition needs to deal with the minor parties (Shooters and Fishers, and Christian Democratic Party). To the extent that those parties have political stances coincident with the Coalition, or are amenable to make deals with the Coalition, a similar situation obtains.

The results seem similar to those after the last Wisconsin elections.

NOTES:

[*] For foreign readers: there are two main parties in Australian politics, the Liberals/Nationals Coalition (right) and Labor (notionally left). Additionally, there are a constellation of smaller parties, some strictly local, some at national level (chief among them, the Australian Greens). In these elections, Labor was the incumbent party.