Bits and Pieces (VII): ABC Edition.

Continuing with his crusade against the ABC, PM Tony Abbott forbade Coalition frontbenchers from attending invitations to the ABC debate program Q&A. As a result, Agriculture minister Barnaby Joyce was forced to cancel his appearance, last night, after having confirmed his presence. (here)

Last week, Communications minister Malcolm Turnbull, along with Defense minister Kevin Andrews and parliamentary secretary Alan Tudge had already declined invitations, apparently before being ordered by their boss.

I, for one, understand the Prime Minister's position and fully support him on that: if his frontbenchers are incapable of answering questions from the public without making fools of themselves, they better abstain from attending the show.

In fact, I thank Abbott sparing us the spectacle of those mumbling gargoyles invading our homes before bed time and I further suggest him to forbid Greg Sheridan, Janet Albrechtsen, Miranda Devine, and their like; all Coalition backbenchers, and Chris Berg and the sundry think-tank fauna to show their mugshots in ABC.

For Christ's sake: at least make them wear a mask. Thank you.

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And speaking of Agriculture minister Barnaby Joyce: last weekend Joyce, attending the ABC interview program Insiders, warned that Asian countries could see Australia as "decadent" if same-sex marriage was made legal here. (here)

Coming from a Very Serious Person, like Joyce, we know that's a Very Serious Matter: he wouldn't just pull something so absurd off his backside. Right?

So, there's that. At the other hand, I warn that we Aussies could see ourselves as "Joyceans" if we take his "warning" too Seriously.

Greece to Merkel: Oxi!

It seems "keyneses" are heading for another terrible week: the Greeks (and even some Germans, see below) decided to answer Oxi in the referendum:

(source)

Animal Spirits!

Is Syriza a Left Party?

Greek Elections (2000-2015):

the Fall of PASOK/ND.

(source)

Is Syriza a Left-wing movement -- God forbid, maybe even a Socialist/Communist party in disguise -- as feared by unnamed prominent members of the European elite and as repeatedly declared by their paid hacks and propagandists in the Murdoch mainstream press?

Beyond any initial posturing by Syriza itself (for instance, as implied in its official name: Coalition of the Radical Left), presumably for the benefit of their lifelong activists, there's little reason to fear.

There are many ways to argue that (see James Petras, here, for one), but the chart above provides a clear reason: until the October 2009 election (won by the centre-left Panhellenic Socialist Movement/PASOK), the constituency of Syriza (313 thousand votes) was 1/7th that of centre-right New Democracy and 1/10th that of PASOK (5.2 million votes, combined).

After less than 3 years of Troika-imposed austerity, applied scrupulously by PASOK with ND support, Syriza's vote more than tripled (1 million votes), while the combined votes of PASOK and ND did not reach half their 2009 level (2 million votes): the PASOK/ND combined loss of 3.2 million votes reflected a gain for Syriza, other smaller parties (chiefly the Golden Dawn), and abstention (over 0.5 million voters did not vote).

Greek Elections (2000-2015):

Fewer Happy Voters in Democracy's Birthplace.

(source)

The constituency of the Communist Party of Greece (KKE) has fluctuated around a narrow band (between 250 and 580 thousand votes), gaining little from the PASOK/ND loss. If there is any Left left in Greece, I'd search for it among those few.

(source)

Similar dynamics seem to apply to the June 2012 and January 2015 elections: quickly enough other smaller parties -- like a balloon -- started losing air; apparently, 1 Greek voter in 3 did not bother to vote.

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The obvious interpretation of those results is that -- tired of austerity and disappointed by the corruption involving those two parties -- lifelong PASOK/ND supporters turned to the smaller parties less tainted by corruption or more critics of austerity, but perhaps not too distant ideologically.

If I had to find those lost PASOK (probably middle-class) voters, I'd look first among the supposedly "radical left" voters of Syriza (so much for the "Red under the bed" of popular imagination).

And, if I had to venture a guess, mine would be that those are highly volatile votes which could easily swing back to PASOK. But if ersatz Left floats your boat, then, by any means.

Just sayin'.


Update:

05-07-2015. Houses and Holes, from Macrobusiness, on the referendum: "It appears the Greek referendum that begins today is too close to call:" 43.0% No; 42.5% Yes. "81% favor Greece staying in the eurozone".

11-07-2015. Incidentally, although I have always been rather skeptical about Syriza, I don't feel and never felt any animus against them: The Rise of Syriza (15-06-2012)

Animal Spirits: Two Days Later.

Two days ago, "keyneses" all over the world were looking at their computer monitors in consternation: there wee red numbers everywhere (see here).

That's how things look like today (10:35 AM Thursday, 2 July 2015, AEST GMT+10):

(Right-click to open another tab with a larger image. source)

(Right-click to open another tab with a larger image. source)

Since then, some "keyneses" lost plenty money, while others won some; the sun set and rose twice; some people were born during these last days, others, died. But -- and maybe it's just me -- I've seen nothing really remarkable happening: no slump, no boom.

Okay, maybe it's too soon to claim victory. Keynes did not establish any kind of timeframe for the awesome power of Animal Spirits to manifest itself  (funny that, wouldn't you say?), so perhaps we should give it some more time to produce its magic. Let's wait. Shock and awe are surely on their way.

Like a VSP-K (Very Serious Post Keynesian) professor likes to say: "eventually" something is bound to happen.