Elections: the Morning After.

(source)

It’s a good thing that, in the great scheme of things, Australia is not a major CO2 emitter and, therefore, the solution to the looming climate catastrophe (to say nothing of the simultaneous mass extinction) does not depend on Australia.

Against all pre-election polls giving the Australian Labor Party an almost sure but close win in yesterday’s federal elections, the COALition won. The only doubt remaining is whether they will form a majority government (that is, elect at least 76 MPs for the 150-member House of Representatives) or will have to negotiate with backbenchers to have legislation passed.

Backbenchers like “independent” Zalli Steggall, who in a rare upset for the COALition, managed to defeat incumbent Tony Abbott. Steggall, elected for the Division of Warringah, herself a Liberal in all but name, became the darling of her upper middle class constituency by not being a social troglodyte and speaking about the need to fight climate change (provided it does not cost them anything).

Labor’s defeat was particularly dramatic and not just because it was unexpected (although, in all honesty, I had a bad feeling about it). It came after Labor intentionally made of itself a large target, policy-wise, with a sharp leftward turn. It campaigned on a platform including strong redistributive measures appealing to fairness, and an ambitious attempt to curb climate change. In other words, what local pundits call a platform based on ideas.

Now the same Very Serious talking heads (like Niki Savva) are already recommending Labor abandon that kind of platform and opt, instead, to remain a lite version of the COALition. It worked for the COALition, right?

The COALition’s campaign, on the other hand, was based on the fake image of Scott Morrison as the “daggy, happy dad next door” and (with a little help from their friends in the presstitute) lying shamelessly about refugees, about non-existing taxes (just like Josh Frydenberg is doing right now on TV as I write this), and about a Labor government secret plan to forbid utes.

Geographically, the COALition was particularly successful in Queensland and Tasmania, the two states most affected by the last six/seven months of environmental catastrophes, beginning with last year’s QLD mega bushfires.

Regular readers of this blog may recognise the following COALition names. The figures represent the voting swings (positive in favour, negative against):

Division      Politician          Swing
=======================================
Dickson       Peter Dutton        +2.4%
Durack        Melissa Price       +4.6%
Farrer        Sussan Ley          -9.6%
Hume          Angus Taylor        +1.5%
Kooyong       Josh Frydenberg     -5.4%
Maranoa       David Littleproud   +6.8%
New England   Barnaby Joyce       +4.7%
Riverina      Michael McCormack   +3.3%
Warringah     Tony Abbott        -18.9%
source:  (votes counted: approx. 75%)

To the extent that our elections can be seen as a dress rehearsal for next year’s much more important American elections, I’ll wish Yanks good luck.